Why Donald Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East But Struggles Regarding Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict
Accounts of an impending American-Russian presidential meeting have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.
Only a few days after President Trump announced he intended to meet Russia's leader Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.
A preliminary get-together by the two nations' top diplomats has been called off, as well.
"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump told reporters at the White House on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I will observe what transpires."
- Donald Trump states he did not want a 'unproductive session' after plan for negotiations with Putin postponed
- Disappointment in Kyiv as Zelensky departs Washington without results
The frequently changing meeting is just the latest development in the president's efforts to broker an conclusion to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a topic of increased attention for the US president after he orchestrated a ceasefire and hostage release agreement in the Palestinian territory.
During a speech in Egypt recently to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, Trump addressed Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.
"We have to get Russia done," he said.
However, the circumstances that converged to make a Middle East success achievable for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for almost several years.
Less Leverage
Per Witkoff, the crucial element to achieving a deal was the Israeli government's decision to attack representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a action that angered America's Arab allies but provided the president bargaining power to compel Israel's leader Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
Trump gained from a history of supporting the Israeli state dating back to his first term, encompassing his decision to relocate the US embassy to the contested city, to change US policy on the legality of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his support for Israeli defense operations against Iran.
The US president, actually, is better regarded among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a position that provided him with unique influence over the Israeli leader.
Combine Trump's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the region, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to secure an agreement.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, the president has significantly reduced leverage. In recent months, he has vacillated between attempts to pressure the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.
Trump has warned to enact additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could harm the global economy and intensify the war.
At the same time, the US leader has publicly berated Ukraine's president, halting briefly information exchange with Ukraine and suspending arms shipments to the nation - only to then back off in the face of worried European partners who caution a Ukrainian collapse could disrupt the whole area.
The president loves to tout his ability to meet and negotiate deals, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to advance the war any nearer a resolution.
Putin may in fact be exploiting Trump's desire for a deal – and belief in direct negotiations - as a means of influencing him.
In July, Putin consented to a high-level meeting in the US state at the time when it seemed probable that Trump would sign off on congressional sanctions package backed by Senate Republicans. That bill was afterwards put on hold.
Recently, as reports spread that the White House was seriously contemplating shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the president of Russia phoned Trump who then touted the possible meeting in Budapest.
The following day, Trump hosted Zelensky at the executive residence, but departed without agreements after a allegedly strained discussion.
The US leader insisted that he was not being played by the Russian president.
"As you are aware, I have been manipulated all my life by the best of them, and I came out really well," he said.
However the president of Ukraine later commented on the timeline of developments.
"Once the issue of advanced weaponry became a little further away for Ukraine – for our nation – the Russian side almost automatically became less engaged in negotiations," he stated.
Thus, in a short period, Trump has shifted from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to planning a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and privately pressuring the Ukrainian president to surrender all of Donbas – even territory Russia has been unable to conquer.
He has finally decided on calling for a truce along current battle lines – a proposal the Russian government has refused to accept.
On the campaign trail last year, the candidate promised that he could end the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has since discarded that pledge, saying that ending the war is proving harder than he anticipated.
It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his authority – and the challenge of finding a peace plan when both parties wants, or is able to, give up the fight.