What Are the Chances That Trump's Gaza Plan Will Work?
Hamas's limited acceptance of Donald Trump's Gaza ceasefire deal last Friday has been received global support representing the closest Israel and Hamas have come over the past 24 months toward stopping the war within the Gaza Strip.
How Near Are We to an Agreement?
The Palestinian faction's incomplete support of the Trump plan is the closest delegates have reached in recent months to a comprehensive conclusion to the war in Gaza. Nevertheless, they remain far off from a settlement.
Trump's 20-point proposal to stop the war specifies that Hamas free all hostages in three days, give up control to a transnational body led by the US president, and disarm. As compensation, Israel would slowly pull back its troops from Gaza and release over 1,000 Palestinian prisoners.
This agreement includes an increase of assistance to Gaza, parts of which are facing starvation, and recovery financing to Gaza, that has been almost entirely destroyed.
The organization gave consent regarding three clauses: the release of every captive, the handing over of authority and the pullout of Israeli troops from the Gaza Strip. Hamas declared the rest of the agreement must be discussed alongside other Palestinian parties, as it is a component of a joint national approach.
Effectively, this implies the group seeks more discussions on the thornier parts of the Trump deal, specifically the request that it disarms, and a solid timetable regarding Israeli troop pullout.
When and Where Will Talks Occur?
Delegates have flown to the Egyptian capital to work out details to narrow the gap between Israel and Hamas.
The talks begin tomorrow and are expected to yield outcomes within a few days, be they successful or not.
The US president posted an image of a map showing Gaza last Saturday evening that showed the line up to which Israeli troops ought to pull back and said if the group consents to the terms, the truce would start immediately. The US president is anxious to stop the war as it comes its second anniversary and prior to the Nobel committee announces the recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize in October, an issue that is an extensively reported focus for him.
The Israeli prime minister announced an agreement to bring Israeli captives back home should preferably take place soon.
Which Differences Persist?
The two sides have been cautious their positions going into negotiations.
Hamas has repeatedly refused to lay down its weapons during previous talks. It has provided no word whether its position has changed on this, even as it broadly accepts to the US proposal, with qualifications. The US and Israel have made it clear that there is little wiggle room regarding the disarmament demand and are resolved to pin Hamas down with binding language in any plan going forward.
Hamas also said it accepted handing over power in Gaza to an expert-led governing force, as outlined in the US proposal. But, in a statement, the militant group specified it would agree to a Gaza-based expert-led administration, rather than the global authority that Trump laid out in the proposal.
The Israeli government has also sought to keep the matter of its troop withdrawal vague. Just hours following the announcement of the US proposal during a shared media briefing in Washington last week, Netanyahu released a video assuring the Israeli public that troops would remain across much of Gaza.
Last Saturday evening, Netanyahu reiterated that forces would remain inside Gaza, saying that captives would be returned while the Israeli military would remain within Gaza's interior.
Netanyahu’s position seemingly stands with the stipulation in Trump’s plan that Israeli troops fully withdraw from Gaza. Hamas will seek reassurances that Israeli forces will fully withdraw and that if the group gives up its weapons, Israeli troops will not return to Gaza.
Mediators must bridge these gaps, obtaining firm, unambiguous terms on disarmament from the group. They must also demonstrate to the faction that Israel will truly pull out from the territory and that there are global assurances that will force the Israeli state to adhere with the conditions of the deal.
The differences might be resolved, and the United States will certainly push both parties to reach a deal. However, negotiations have come near to a deal previously abruptly failing multiple times in the past two years, making both sides wary of declaring victory before a final signing.