Keir Starmer's Allies Launch 'Halt Andy Burnham' Campaign to Block Manchester Mayor's Commons Return

Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly kicked off a concerted initiative to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This move follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an upcoming by-election.

Serious Obstacles in the Selection Procedure

Several members on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection process. This is largely due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are keen to avert any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour party machine reportedly swung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Last year, he caused outrage within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially stand for the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against overstating the extent of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole prominent Labour personality with favourable ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

Several insiders also expressed fears about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. There is also speculation the body could impose an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, a supporter warned against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The trade unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question has a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is likely to launch a strong campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.