Daily Homicides in the nation Decline Thirty-Seven Percent In the Sheinbaum Administration, According to Official Data

The mean number of everyday murders monthly in the country has fallen by thirty-seven percent since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, per new administrative figures. Nevertheless, public safety specialists have cautioned that homicide data might not indicate better national stability.

Marked Reduction in Per-Day Averages

There was an mean of close to 55 murders a day in the month of November versus almost 87 when Sheinbaum took the presidential office in the previous September. This announcement was shared by the director of the country’s federal public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular press briefing on Tuesday.

“The result in killings that we’ve had in these months is remarkably notable,” the President remarked, adding that the previous month the smallest number of homicides were registered for any November in the past decade.

Historical Background and Official Plan

Violent organized crime infighting, coupled with the administration's highly military operations to confront the drug gangs, have led to Mexico’s murder numbers rise sharply in recent years. The rate reached a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the nation's official data office.

That gave Mexico a homicide figure over 4x higher than the US. However, killings have been on the decrease, declining to 33,550 last year. Sheinbaum has attributed her public safety plan for an ostensibly more pronounced decline in homicides this year.

At a news briefing in August, the Mexican leader stated: “There is a strategy, we have monitoring of the strategy, and there is detailed monitoring town by town in certain cases. The plan is effective. And we have to continue working at it every day.”

The central pillars of the President's safety plan involve:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s national guard.
• Improving information gathering and investigation capabilities.
• Increased cooperation between various agencies.

Analyst Warnings and Data Limitations

Nevertheless, security experts warned that using homicide numbers to paint a picture of peace was problematic. This is especially true in light of the rise in different crimes such as people going missing.

“This would be positive news if this were a decrease, but I think we can’t just focus on the homicide data and say: ‘Well then, great,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican criminal organizations. “I would be cautiously positive.”

Per the policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, murders overall declined by more than 20% in the first 10 months of the current year versus the identical period last year. Yet, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in certain regions have risen by up to 200%.

“Statistics on homicides is no longer useful for gauging the reality of insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who lack the capacity or the inclination to accurately recognize and classify corpses. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the capability to hide violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on month-to-month averages of everyday homicides was additionally an issue because it might mask periods when there were particularly spiking levels of murders.

“Employing the daily average makes surges of violence unseen,” he stated.

Detentions and Seizures as Metrics of Progress

Where the government can cite the success of its security strategy is on detentions and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 suspects were apprehended between October 2024 and this past November for serious offenses, according to government data. More than 20,000 weapons were taken and 311 tons of narcotics confiscated.

“Trump cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because actually she is doing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, thousands of confiscations, and all the operational degrading of organised crime. It’s highly in political terms beneficial,” commented Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Societal Frustration

Yet notwithstanding these efforts, Mexico continues to be plagued by high violence, with a number of regions in the midst of cartel-fueled bloodshed. In the previous month there was a prominent assassination of a popular mayor in the state of Michoacan, among 10 mayors murdered in the last 12 months.

Weeks later, many thousands of young people took to the streets in Mexico City and throughout the nation to show their anger at corruption and cartel violence.

“The federal government shares [data] in a way to create a story of safety. Politically it’s highly successful, from a social perspective it’s very questionable,” the analyst concluded.